Predictions

On this page, I’ll be tracking all of the predictions that I make across all sports, starting with the NHL 2014 playoffs, if for no other reason than to make fun of myself when they are all wrong.  Under each prediction, you’ll see a link to the blog post in which the picks were originally made, and you’ll also notice the gambling lines attached.

Note: You also might see a “Best Bet” title after one of the picks in each group of picks.

Y= The pick was right.  N = The pick was wrong.  Y+= The pick was right, and I guessed the number of games correctly.  For standings predictions, I will only do a Y or N for division winner.

NBA Playoffs 2016

Round 1:
Eastern Conference
Cavs over Pistons in 4
Raptors over Pacers in 6
Heat over Hornets in 7
Celtics over Hawks in 7

Western Conference
Warriors over Rockets in 4
Spurs over Grizzlies in 4
Thunder over Mavericks in 4 (The West 1st round will suck, obviously)
Clippers over Trail Blazers in 6

2nd Round
Eastern Conference
Cavs over Celtics in 6
Raptors over Heat in 5

Warriors over Clippers in 7
Thunder over Spurs in 7

Conference Finals
Cavs over Raptors in 6
Warriors over Thunder in 7

Finals:
Warriors over Cavs in 7

Note: I picked Cavs over Thunder in 7 before the season, and I’m rooting for that one more than the prediction above.  Just couldn’t get myself to pick against the Warriors.

NHL Playoffs 2016

Round 1:
Eastern Conference:
Capitals over Flyers in 5
Penguins over Rangers in 7
Lightning over Red Wings in 7
Islanders over Panthers in 6

Western Conference:
Stars over Wild in 5
Blues over Blackhawks in 7
Predators over Ducks in 6
Kings over Sharks in 6

Round 2:
Eastern Conference:
Capitals over Penguins in 6
Islanders over Lightning in 6

Western Conference:
Blues over Stars in 6
Kings over Predators in 5

Conference Finals:
Capitals over Islanders in 7
Blues over Kings in 7

Capitals over Blues in 6, Conn Smythe Alex Ovechkin

MLB Playoffs 2015

Wild Card Games:
Astros over Yankees, score 5-1
Cubs over Pirates 2-1

Division Series:
Dodgers over Mets in 4 (Dodgers pitching is better than mets young guns)
Cubs over Cardinals in 5 (Arrieta and Lester win the series for the Cubs)
Royals over Astros in 3
Blue Jays over Rangers in 4 (Neither of these two series will be very close, unlike the ALCS)

League Championship Series:
Dodgers over Cubs in 6 (Kershaw shuts up playoff doubters, Cubs won’t have enough after Arrieta and Lester)Royals over Blue Jays in 7 (Best series of October, David Price is a beast but Royals are too much in the end)

World Series:
Dodgers over Royals in 6
MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

NFL Standings 2015: Predicted on September 10, 2015 (Opening Night)

AFC EAST:
Patriots 12-4 (Pats will have 1 seed because they destroy Colts in Week 6 and leave Reggie Wayne’s head on a stake.)
Dolphins 10-6 (misses playoffs with 3 way tiebreaker favoring the Bengals and Chargers)
Bills 9-7
Jets 7-9

Analysis: Pats are the Pats, Miami is gonna be really good in beginning of the season but struggle late due to depth issues, Bills will be Jets circa 2009 with Rex Ryan at the helm, and Jets will be great except for QB spot, which will be horrendous.

AFC NORTH:
Ravens 10-6
Bengals 10-6
Steelers 8-8
Browns 6-10

Analysis: I wanted to pick Bengals but I can’t trust their depth when they always leave that much cap space.  Ravens will be good not great and get division by tiebreaker, Steelers offense regresses a little and defense blows, and Browns show signs of life but are still the Browns.

AFC SOUTH:
Colts 12-4
Texans 9-7
Titans 6-10
Jaguars 6-10

Analysis: Boring division will go exactly as people expect.  Colts will be the team who can beat any crappy team by 8000 but then not have “the look” of a good playoff team.  And that cliche will be right.

AFC WEST:
Broncos: 11-5
Chargers: 10-6
Chiefs: 7-9
Raiders: 5-11

Analysis: Football Outsiders reminded me how good the Broncos defense is, but Peyton and his worse offensive line won’t be as dominant as the past 2 years.  Chargers are a damn good team, trendy pick in the playoffs. Can’t get a read on Chiefs to save my life.  Raiders are the Raiders.

NFC EAST:
Cowboys 10-6
Eagles 10-6
Giants 7-9
Redskins 4-12

Analysis: Cowboys take a step back, because their running game has to come back to earth, but still are good.  I think I’m the only person not picking the Eagles to either with the division or flame out.  Giants are opposite of the Giants of 4-8 years ago, great passing offense bad defense.  Redskins are a joke, but you already knew that.

NFC NORTH:
Packers 12-4
Vikings 9-7
Bears 8-8
Lions 7-9

Analysis: Packers are the Packers, Vikings improve on last year and are a fake “sleeper” pick in 2016, Bears aren’t as bad as people expect, and Lions aren’t as bad as their record indicates.

NFC SOUTH:
Falcons 10-6
Panthers 8-8
Saints 8-8
Buccaneers 7-9

Analysis: Falcons are a soft 10 win team in a 10 win division, but dumping Mike Smith is incredibly helpful.  Panthers get injury luck and are screwed because their depth is lacking.  Saints look like an NBA 7th seed who should probably gut it and rebuild instead of being mediocre.  Jameis is good for a rookie, not great.

NFC WEST:
Seahawks 11-5
Cardinals 9-7 (win tiebreaker over Vikings)
Rams 8-8
49ers 7-9

Analysis: Division isn’t as full of extremes as people expect.  Seahawks struggle early and The Play Call hangover is questioned by all the annoying talking heads.  Then Seattle rights the ship but doesn’t look quite as good as it did the past 2 years. Cardinals sorta kinda buck the regression trend but no completely.  Jeff Fisher has another 8-8 season because he’s Jeff Fisher.  San Fran isn’t as bad as people are predicting for doomsday.

Playoffs, Wild Card Round:

6 Chargers def. 3 Broncos – This ends the Peyton era, as he plays well but not Peyton-like.  Stats experts won’t be too surprised but talking heads will act like world exploded and Peyton choked, which won’t be true.
5 Bengals def. 4 Ravens – Now this one will surprise everyone.  Andy Dalton finally gets a playoff win against a team that knows how to play above itself in the playoffs.  They’ll win because AJ Green will torch the Ravens suspect secondary.
3 Cowboys destroy 6 Cardinals – Anyone who out-thinks themselves and picks the Cardinals in this on to try and look smart will feel stupid.
5 Eagles def. 4 Falcons – It will be a huge deal in weeks 16 and 17 that the Eagles get the better record to play the Falcons and not the Cowboys.

Divisional Round:
1 Patriots def. 6 Chargers – Game will be within 7 points because Philip Rivers and Stevie Johnson will beat up Pats secondary.  But the Pats are too good.
2 Colts def. 5 Bengals – I really wanted to pick the Bengals, but Vontae Davis will be able to at least contain AJ Green, and Andrew Luck is just better than Andy Dalton.
1 Packers def. 6 Eagles – Chip Kelly will coach a great game, but it’s Aaron Rodgers vs. Sam Bradford.  Will be a great game to watch.
3 Cowboys def. 2 Seahawks – Cowboys were the only team to beat the Seahawks at home last year, and they know how to play that team.  And Seattle just won’t be the same team, and Cowboys will be locked in mentally.

Conference Championships:
1 Patriots def. 2 Colts – Colts will finally realize how dumb it was to not spend their plentiful cap space on the front seven.
3 Cowboys def. 1 Packers – I went back and forth on this one more than any other pick.  But the Cowboys will have revenge for the Dez Bryant 4th and 2 “catch.”

Super Bowl:
Patriots def. Cowboys 31-24
Remember, the “Blind Love” part of this site’s slogan comes before “Thoughtful Analysis.”

Older from the archive:

NFL Standings and Playoffs Predictions 2014:

AFC EAST:
Patriots 13-3
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
Jets 3-13

AFC NORTH:
Bengals 11-5
Ravens 10-6
Browns 6-10
Steelers 5-11

AFC SOUTH:
Colts 9-7
Texans 9-7
Titans 7-9Jaguars 4-12

AFC WEST:
Broncos 12-4
Chargers 10-6, win tiebreaker over Ravens
Chiefs 6-10
Raiders 3-13

NFC EAST:
Eagles 11-5
Redskins 9-7
Cowboys 9-7
Giants 4-12

NFC NORTH:
Bears 12-4, win tiebreaker over Seahawks
Packers 10-6, win tiebreaker over 49ers
Lions 8-8
Vikings 5-11

NFC SOUTH:
Panthers 10-6
Saints 9-7
Buccaneers 8-8
Falcons 7-9

NFC WEST:
Seahawks 12-4
49ers 10-6
Cardinals 7-9
Rams 4-12

WILD CARD ROUND:
3 Bengals def 6 Ravens
5 Chargers def 4 Colts
6 49ers def 3 Eagles (This might be the game of the year.)
5 Packers def 4 Panthers

DIVISIONAL ROUND:
1 Patriots def 5 Chargers
2 Broncos def 3 Bengals
1 Bears def 6 49ers (Hardest pick to make, I like the Niners a lot.  Close game here.)
2 Seahawks def 5 Packers (And every ESPN talking head will spend the entire offseason saying how Green Bay hates to play in Seattle.)

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS:
1 Patriots def 2 Broncos (Home field advantage will be the difference in 2014 as it was in 2013.)
1 Bears def 2 Seahawks (Just like with the AFC, this pick would be different if the home and away teams were switched.

SUPER BOWL:
Patriots def Bears 31-28.  MVP Tom Brady, but there’s a good chance that he won’t be the most deserving pick (My guess would be Gronk), but the voters will give it to him.

NBA 2014 Playoffs, Conference Finals
Heat (-370) over Pacers (+310) in 6. Best Bet.
Spurs (-215) over Thunder (+185) in 5.

NHL 2014 Playoffs, Conference Finals
Rangers (100) over Canadiens (-120) in 6. Best Bet.
Blackhawks (-130) over Kings (+110) in 7.

NBA 2014 Playoffs, Second Round

Clippers (+175) over Thunder (-205) in 6. N
Spurs (-400) over Blazers (+330) in 6. Best Bet. Y
Wizards (+145) over Pacers (-165) in 6. N
Heat (-550) over Nets (+445) in 7. Y

NHL 2014 Playoffs, Second Round

Bruins (-230) over Canadiens (+190) in 5. Best Bet. N, I hate life.
Rangers (+140) over Penguins (-160) in 6. Y
Blackhawks (-320) over Wild (+260) in 6. Y+
Kings (-120) over Ducks (100) in 6. Y

NHL 2014 Playoffs, First Round:

Ducks (-205) over Stars (+175) in 7. Y
Avalanche (-135) over Wild (+115) in 6. N
Blackhawks (-105) over Blues (-115) in 5. (Best Bet… look at those odds!) Y
Sharks (-145) over Kings (+125) in 7. N
Bruins (-355) over Red Wings (+255) in 5. Y+
Penguins (-280) over Blue Jackets (+235) in 6. Y+
Canadiens (-102) over Lightning (-118) in 7. Y
Rangers (-145) over Flyers (+125) in 5. Y

NBA 2014 Playoffs, First Round:

Indiana Pacers (-560) over Atlanta Hawks (+480) in 4. Y
Miami Heat (-2000) over Charlotte Bobcats (+1200) in 5. Best Bet, obviously. Y
Brooklyn Nets (-130) over Toronto Raptors (+110) in 6. Y
Chicago Bulls (-190) over Washington Wizards (+170) in 6. N
San Antonio Spurs (-675) over Dallas Mavericks (+550) in 5. Y
Oklahoma City Thunder (-350) over Memphis Grizzlies (+300) in 6. Y
Los Angeles Clippers (-350) over Golden State Warriors (+300) in 7. Y+
Houston Rockets (-190) over Portland Trail Blazers (+170) in 7. N

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