(Wait, ref, you mean we’re allowed to run something other than a slant route on the goal line? Wish I had known that earlier.)
As much as I’ve used Football Outsiders’ rankings for the past 2 picks, they’re largely useless here. The temperature can’t decide whether it wants to be positive or negative, but either way it’s close enough to change the outcome of the game entirely.
With those rankings, Seattle is 2nd on offense, 4th on defense, and 3rd on special teams. But Marshawn Lynch is out and I doubt that the suddenly potent Seattle passing game will be at 100% when nobody can completely feel their hands.
Minnesota is 16th on offense, 14th on defense, and 4th on special teams. The special teams for either team don’t mean much, as the field goals won’t go as far, the kicking coverage won’t hit as hard in the cold, and the punts are gonna be a little more duck-ish.
Ultimately, I’m taking the Seahawks to win the game, because a game in this kind of weather is about avoiding mistakes, and the Seahawks are simply the better team. If they can at least contain Adrian Peterson, I don’t see Teddy Bridgewater beating the Legion of Boom in these temperatures. Against the spread of SEA -4.5, I’m still going with the Seahawks, although that feels like too much of a coin flip. When in doubt, ride with the better team.
Packers-Redskins preview to come after this game.